One of many market’s largest skeptics goes again to his previous methods.
Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson cautioned that the rally that has enveloped markets in latest weeks is lengthy within the tooth and overdue for a breather.
“As predicted, falling rates of interest on the again finish have led to modest, additional features for this bear market rally,” Wilson wrote in a brand new be aware on Monday. “Nonetheless, with final week’s value motion, the S&P 500 is now proper into our unique tactical goal vary of 4000-4150. Whereas the index has modestly exceeded its 200-day transferring common and the breadth continues to develop, the downtrend from the start of the yr stays in place. This makes the risk-reward of enjoying for extra upside fairly poor at this level, and we at the moment are sellers once more.”
A number of weeks in the past, Wilson appropriately predicted the market’s bounce. And after a brutal yr for traders, the rally has been a lot welcomed.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) are up greater than 6% and seven%, respectively, up to now month whereas the Dow Jones Industrial Common (^DJI) has tacked on 5%.
Beneficial properties have been spurred by a pullback within the U.S. greenback, indicators of peak inflation, and a Federal Reserve that could be on the precipice of slowing the tempo of rate of interest hikes.
However a hotter-than-expected November jobs report final week — which calls into query the potential for a extra dovish Fed — and renewed COVID-19 lockdowns in China have dented that bullish thesis.
“Keep defensively oriented (Healthcare, Utilities, Staples) as charges are more likely to fall additional into subsequent yr as development and inflation proceed to sluggish,” Wilson suggested. “Progress shares are unlikely to learn from falling charges from right here given threat to earnings, particularly for tech and consumer-oriented companies that are giant weights in development indices.”
Different strategists on Wall Avenue are additionally staying cautious on shares to spherical out 2022.
Goldman Sachs stated it sees zero earnings development for S&P 500 corporations subsequent yr and nil appreciation for the benchmark index.
“We stay comparatively defensive for the three-month horizon with additional headwinds from rising actual yields probably and lingering development uncertainty,” Goldman Sachs strategist Christian Mueller-Glissmann stated.
Brian Sozzi is an editor-at-large and anchor at Yahoo Finance. Comply with Sozzi on Twitter @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn.
Click on right here for the most recent inventory market information and in-depth evaluation, together with occasions that transfer shares
Learn the most recent monetary and enterprise information from Yahoo Finance
Obtain the Yahoo Finance app for Apple or Android
Comply with Yahoo Finance on Twitter, Fb, Instagram, Flipboard, LinkedIn, and YouTube