S&P World: Toyota, Honda homeowners defecting to rivals for EV choices


“Whereas each Japanese corporations constructed a U.S. legacy with phenomenal gasoline economic system and powertrain applied sciences — together with electrification by hybrids, plug-in hybrids and fuel-cell electrical autos — each have been caught flat-footed within the context of 2022,” S&P World stated.

EV share within the U.S. has greater than doubled to five.2 % within the 12-month interval ending Sept. 30, S&P World stated, citing registration information.

And battery-electric car share in California — a conventional stronghold for Toyota and Honda — reached 16 % by the third quarter of 2022, based on Experian. Toyota held its No. 1 spot in California up to now this 12 months, however newcomer Tesla was No. 2, Ford was No. 3 and Honda was No. 4, registration information exhibits.

“S&P World Mobility conquest information for Tesla’s Mannequin 3 and Y, Ford Mustang Mach-E, Hyundai Ioniq 5 and the Chevrolet Bolt present robust captures of patrons from the 2 main Japanese manufacturers,” the information agency stated.

Within the interval from October 2021 to September 2022, about 15 % of Tesla’s conquests got here from Toyota and 13 % from Honda, S&P World stated. Almost 7 % of Tesla’s conquests got here from BMW in the identical interval and 6.2 % from Mercedes-Benz.

“The highest-five Mannequin Y conquests are the Lexus RX, Honda CR-V, Toyota RAV4, Honda Odyssey and Honda Accord,” S&P World stated. “In the meantime, the highest 5 Mannequin 3 conquests are the Honda Civic, Honda Accord, Toyota Camry, Toyota RAV4 and Honda CR-V.”

Whereas EVs are nonetheless a comparatively small share of the auto market in comparison with inner combustion autos, the trajectory for EVs is robust, S&P World stated.

“Evaluating EV market efficiency requires wanting by a lower-volume lens than with conventional ICE [internal combustion engine] merchandise,” stated Stephanie Brinley, a senior analyst at S&P World Mobility. “However development prospects for EV merchandise are robust, funding is huge and the regulatory surroundings within the U.S. and globally means that these are the answer for the longer term.”

S&P World predicts the variety of EV nameplates will develop from 48 at current to 159 by the top of 2025. Tesla’s present 65 % market share is anticipated to fall beneath 20 % by 2025 as opponents roll out new fashions.

To this point this 12 months, Tesla has 4 of the highest 5 EV fashions, registration information exhibits. Additionally within the prime 10 are the Kia EV6, Volkswagen ID.4, Nissan Leaf and Chevrolet Bolt, based on registration information.

— Larry P. Vellequette contributed to this story.

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